“Calling a pocket pair preflop with the sole intention of flopping a set.”
By set-mining, we are not playing our pocket pair for its pot-equity or playability. If it were profitable enough to do this (as it is in many cases), it would not be correct to think of the situation as a pure set-mine.
So, for example, we cold-call with a hand like TT from the BTN vs a CO open. We are not calling purely to flop a set of Tens. On many flop textures we would expect TT to be the best hand, and would consider continuing against an aggressive flop action from our opponent.
If we imagine a different scenario where UTG opens, and we decide to cold-call pocket-twos in the BB, we begin to see a little closer what we mean by a pure set-mine. In the majority of cases, if our opponent fires a continuation bet on the flop, our 22 will be an automatic fold unless we spike our set. The one exception to this rule is if we flop an open-ended straight-draw and get the right pot-odds to continue.
Many preflop calls with pocket pairs will fall somewhere in between the two extremes. Most of our value might come from flopping a set. That said there are many situations where we can continue profitably with the hand, even if we don’t make our set.
How to Set-Mine Profitably
It makes sense to focus our attention on pure set-mines, where we will only make money assuming we hit our set, and lose every time we don’t. So we are pretty much going to start off by looking at the worst case scenario where our hand has absolutely no value unless we hit.
The first detail we are interested in is what percentage of the time we hit our set after calling preflop. This should give us a basic idea regarding what kind of price we might need in order for us to have a profitable set-mine. Given there are three cards on the flop, we can calculate our chances of hitting at around 11.8% of the time. In other words, based on direct pot-odds, we need to invest less than 11.8% of the total preflop pot.
But is this realistic? Not in the slightest: we will usually be investing more like 45% or the pot HU and 30% of the pot 3-way. So why is it that set-mining is considered to be a profitable strategy by many?
It all comes down to our implied odds. The preflop price does not justify a call with our pocket pair on the chance that we hit our set alone. But once we factor in the additional chips we can win when we hit our set, it can potentially become a profitable endeavour. But how much more do we need to make postflop in order for our set-mine to become profitable? And perhaps more importantly, how do we even know how much money we will make postflop assuming we hit?
Calculating Profitability of Set-Mines
Let’s start by imagining a simple preflop situation and consider how much money we would need to make on average postflop in order for set-mining to be profitable.
SB posts 0.5bb, BB posts 1bb. Action folds around to the CO, who opens to 3bb. Hero is on the BTN with a pocket pair and calls 3bb. SB folds. BB folds.
Pretty straight-forward so far. We know that we will hit with our pocket pair about 11.8% of the time, so from a direct pot-odds point of view we can’t invest more than 11.8% of the total pot. (We are not interested in pot-odds actually, only implied odds here, but we can use pot-odds to help us calculate what type of implied odds we need.)
So if 3bb equates to 11.8% of the pot, what would the total pot size need to be in order for calling to be correct.
100/11.8 = 8.475
3bb * 8.475 = 25.42bb
(In other words, if the size of the preflop pot was actually 25.42bbs and we were calling 3bb, we’d actually have a direct pot-odds call to try and hit a set. This helps us figure out how much we need to make postflop given that the actual preflop pot is a lot smaller than 25.42bb)
The total size of the preflop pot is actually 7.5bb when we include the investment from the blinds, which means we are roughly 18bb short of what we need. This is the amount we need to make postflop on average for set-mining to be profitable. In this particular scenario, it will only be around 6 times our initial investment.
Average Winnings
Six times our investment might seem like a small enough amount to be making when we hit. However, it is not enough for it to simply be possible for us to make this amount of money when we hit. We need to be consistently making this amount of money when we hit on average. Otherwise, we will be losing money with our set-mines. There will be many situations where we hit our set and simply don’t get any action whatsoever. Therefore, we need to also rake some big pots where we make well over 6 times our preflop investment for it to be profitable overall.
We need to also consider the following scenarios
We make our set and lose to a higher set
We get the money in good, but villain sucks out on the river
We think our set might not be any good and end up folding
With these scenarios factored in we need it to be possible to make significantly more than 6 times our preflop investment when we hit. If we were to make a conservative estimate, we’d ideally like for it to be possible to make almost 20 times our initial investment in the best case scenario.
The 20-times estimate gives rise to two commonly cited poker rules, the call-20 rule and the 5-10 rule.
Call-20 / 5-10 Rules
The following two rules are cited commonly by poker players. It’s a good idea to be familiar with them, even if only for the sake of being able to converse with other players.
Call-20 – We need to be able to make 20 times our initial investment after the flop
In other words, if we are investing 3bb preflop on our set-mine, we need the remaining effective stacks postflop to be at least 60bb.
5-10 – We shouldn’t invest more than 5% of our stack on a set-mining opportunity except in special circumstances where we may invest up to 10%.
We’ll get to the “special circumstances” later on, but essentially these rules are very similar. If we invest 5bb preflop with roughly 100bb effective stacks (i.e. 5%), we will be able to make roughly 20 times our initial investment postflop.
Estimating Implied Odds
It’s easy to say how much we can potentially make postflop; this is simply how deep the effective stacks are. However, there is no formula for understanding how much we will make on average. This calculation is going to be based on estimates regarding our opponent and how much implied odds we have. If we are unsure regarding our implied odds, it’s best to stick to the call-20 rule. However, in situations where we perceive our implied-odds to be very good, that call-20 rule can quickly become more like a call-10 rule.
But what exactly are implied odds? And how do we know if our implied-odds are good?
Set-Mine Implied Odds – Essentially this tells us how likely we are to get a big payout when we hit our set.
The following situations are spots where we will likely benefit from excellent implied odds.
Villain has a strong range – Hence, he is less likely to want to fold that range postflop when we connect.
Villain is aggressive – He is the type who likes to bluff a ton and may potentially try to triple-barrel bluff us when we connect.
Villain has a deep stack – The more chips villain has in his stack, the more we can potentially win.
Villain is a fish – Perhaps villain is the type that simply cannot let go of top pair when he hits. This is great for extracting value with our sets.
We can reverse this list to find situations where our implied odds are not as good as we might like.
Small Implied Odds – Even if we hit, we can’t expect a large payout.
Villain has a weak range – Villain’s range is wide, and he is more likely to fold postflop than to actually pay us off when we hit our set.
Villain is passive – Villain is the type of guy that won’t ever try to bluff us, and never makes the mistake of over-valuing second best hands.
Villain has a shallow stack – The fewer chips villain has, the less we can potentially win when we hit.
Villain is a good player – He is more likely to recognise that we are strong and make a good laydown as opposed to paying us off.
Situations with Bad Implied Odds
The typical situation players view as a non-profitable set-mine, despite being able to make 20 times our preflop investment, is when the BTN opens, and we are in the SB with a pocket pair.
Because BTN is opening very wide, many players feel that it is unlikely that we will get paid off postflop when hitting our set. So despite the fact that we can make 20 times our initial preflop investment a lot of players prefer to either 3bet or fold.
We must also factor in the chance that BB squeezes. If this happens, we potentially have to ditch our hand preflop, and don’t even have the chance of making our set.
This principle can also be applied to a spot where we are in MP and are facing a UTG open. Many players recommend defending only 77+ as set-mines in this spot. If we defend all pocket pairs as set-mines in MP facing a UTG open, we have the following two problems that damage our implied-odds:
We are more likely to get squeezed and not see a flop, with 4 players still behind us. (Assuming 6-max)
We are more likely to get set-over-set if we have a small pocket, and the flop ends up being multi-way.
Situations with Good Implied Odds
A very frequent question that players ask is –
Should we ever set-mine when facing a 3bet?
If we assume 100bb stacks, this situation will not fall within the call-20 rule. However, we might be able to set-mine in some cases regardless. This is the case when the 3bettor has a very strong range, increasing the chances that we get paid off when we hit. The two main situations are –
The aggressor 3bets against an early or middle-position open, indicating he is strong.
The aggressor has a history of only 3betting very strong holdings.
So in these scenarios it is probably correct to defend with a pocket pair against a 3bet provided –
The stacks are at least 100bb.
The 3bet sizing is not super large.
Another spot with good implieds might be when UTG or MP open, and we are closing the action in the BB. This is for the following reasons
We get better direct pot-odds in the BB.
We don’t need to worry about getting squeezed; we will always see a flop.
UTG/MP typically have strong opening ranges, meaning that we might get paid off more frequently postflop when we hit.
Putting it Together
The important thing to take away from this is that while there are mathematical limits on when we can set-mine, most of our calculations are only as good as our estimates regarding our opponents.
The call-20 and 5/10 rules should only be used as a rough guide. It’s important in every possible set-mining situation to make an estimate regarding our opponent and how much we benefit from any implied-odds they might give us.
Making a leap up to a higher limit a profitable one, takes more than poker skill and a big enough bankroll. The mental side of moving up in stakes is just as important. My last blog post, introduced two common mistakes players make, here are three more:
Placing Too Much Importance on ‘Getting There’
Often too much stock is put on just moving up and getting to that stake, rather than establishing yourself and crushing it. So moving up is looked at as an all or nothing, sink or swim, move-up or fail, type goal. This style inevitably leads to a lot of negative feelings if you have to move back down. Players often see this as a sign of failure, rather than a common part of the process.
This style of moving up in stakes is very results orientated; there is no emphasis on acquiring the necessary skills to master the level your only focus is on getting there. Instead of having an all or nothing view, take a more strategic approach where you move up and down between limits quite loosely to acquire skill while lowering risk. Set aside a certain amount of money to take shots and treat it like a reconnaissance mission to gain some intel on how the games played and what you need to learn. Instead of worrying about winning, take the opportunity to try and ascertain what skills you will need to beat that level, which you can work on when you move back down to your current games.
In the end this style, builds skill more consistently and removes a lot of negativity that happens if you don’t happen to run great.
Risk Aversion
At some point when moving up in stakes, the money may become significant enough that it affects your play. For example, losing a buy-in at $200NL is no problem, but for some reason losing a buy-in at $400NL might be more meaningful, and makes you play scared. Most players eventually get used to the money. Here are a couple things to make that happen faster:
Money always represents something more than dollar figures. Try to work out what the money means to you. It could represent security, identity, freedom, status or skill, money could represent putting food in your kids mouth or buying a house. Whatever money means to you, that is essentially what you fear losing when you move up in stakes.
Players with risk aversion also fail to consider the risk of doing nothing. In other words, the risks they actually take by not moving up in stakes. If you don’t challenge yourself, you put yourself in danger of getting overtaken by other players who will and stumping your own growth. By not playing in bigger games you are properly bankrolled for you run the risk of not earning your potential, or having to put in so many more hours to do so.
In either case, you may not be able to change the realities of the money that you need, or the risks that you’re taking, but often just knowing what you’re dealing with makes it easier to do what’s necessary.
Lack of Learning Material
Players at higher stakes often encounter a point where their learning hits a brick wall. As the stakes get higher and the player pools get smaller, and there isn’t the same amount of learning material available as there is for the midstakes. The players crushing those limits don’t want to share their secrets because it can have an immediate negative impact on their bottom line.
Players often believe this problem means there’s nothing left to learn, rather than just lacking the material to learn from. There is always something to learn, the question is whether you are willing to put in the research the top players in the game do, to figure out ‘what’ to be improving. The bottom line is that if you aren’t improving at some point you’ll be overtaken by other players who are continually learning. Rather than risk busting out of the game as have many players who crushed the games in 2005, do the research to find and learn what you need to stay ahead.
Moving up to a higher stake is understandably difficult for a poker player. You are putting more money on the line and taking on more risk at the same time.
The two most important factors in moving up to a new stake is having enough technical poker skill and a large enough bankroll.
However, players often underestimate the importance of the mental game, and the mental hurdles required to break through to a higher limit.
Every player has their limitations. Here are some of the common issues players face and some ideas about how to successfully break through:
Assuming Opponents are the Same
One of the biggest hurdles players encounter happens when they assume that the games will be just as beatable as the ones they currently play.
Chances are if you’ve decided to move up, it’s because you’re crushing the games you’re currently playing, so it’s understandable how you can trick yourself into thinking you’ll automatically do the same at the next limit.
The problem isn’t that you have confidence – confidence is a great thing – the problem is that you have too much confidence.
Being overconfident is one of the most unknown problems in poker. When moving up, the only thing you can prove is what you’ve already done at your current limit. At best, the confidence you have that you’ll crush opponents at the next limit is a guess.
It’s the kind of guess that causes problems for players who were not expecting to go from being the shark at one level and a minnow at the next. Yes, it’s true that the fish are likely to be the same across most of the stakes, but how you play against the regs is usually how you define whether or not you can beat that level.
Rather than assume you’re going to dominate, do the work necessary to figure out how and prove that you can.
Assuming Your Skill Level is the Same
Sometimes players just aren’t able to play as well at their new stake, as they were able to at their previous stakes. For some reason they just freeze up in bigger games.
If it were at their usual games they have no problem firing out that loose three-bet, but now, they hesitate and play too tight. The truly difficult thing for players to understand, is why they know the correct way to play, but just can’t do it.
The pressure of playing at higher stakes is going to be there until you gain enough experience, but this problem can be eased by knowing more about how human beings learn and develop skill. Skills have levels of gradation to them, which get put under more scrutiny when they are under pressure.
You might have no problem rehearsing a speech in front of the mirror, but may stutter a bit in front of friends, struggle in front of a small work audience, and completely crumble in front of a conference.
If you crack under the pressure of a higher limit, this doesn’t mean you have suddenly lost your skill, you just haven’t mastered it to the level you thought.
Only the skills that show up under pressure is what you’ve mastered. Everything else is still in the process of being learned. So earmark your mistakes as areas of your game that needs more work, and do the work.
Some players believe pre-flop play is simple, at least in comparison to post-flop play. However, not only is pre-flop the only street you’re involved with on every hand, a small pre-flop mistake can often lead to more costlier mistakes on the flop, turn or river. Here’s your starter for five…
1. Changing your bet size based on hand strength
Altering your pre-flop bet size is fine, if you’re three-betting from the blinds and going to be out of position you need to charge opponents more to continue. Likewise if there’s a limper in front of you then you need to take that into account. What you don’t want to do is start changing your opening raise sized based on the cards you’re holding. Often you’ll see a player who usually opens to three times the big blind, make it 2.5x or 4x the big blind. It’s likely in the former instance he’s got a big hand – the smaller raise it to ensure action – and in the latter a marginal hand – like a small pair – that he doesn’t want to see a flop with. Don’t make the same mistake.
2. Putting yourself in their shoes
The old maxim ‘play the player not the cards’ rings true here, if a player shoves 12 big blinds from the small blind into your big blind, it’s so tempting to make your decision based on what you’d shove with if you were the small blind, when what you need to do is get inside their head and make a decision based on what they, not you, would do in that spot.
3. Sticking rigidly to a template
Whilst having a default set of hands you raise from each position is a solid starting point there’s a myriad of factors that should make you differ from your default. A simple one involves late position raises. If you’re on the button and you have two tight players to your left you can open more often. On the flip side, if one or both of the players to your left are aggressive or have a shoving stack then lopping off the lower end of your button raising range isn’t a bad idea.
4. Allowing your opponents to play perfectly
Leaving chips on the table when you have a big hand is up there with making a bad call, both cost you chips only you might not even realize that the former is doing just that. For instance if you three-bet with aces and get four-bet, then five betting seems the natural thing to do. However, in doing so you allow your opponent to fold all of his bluffs or hands he thinks are behind your five-betting range. If stacks allow flat calling and allowing your opponent to continue with a weaker range could well be more profitable. Think of it this way, you don’t want to rely on your opponents having to make big mistakes to win big pots.
5. Calling too much from the blinds
It can seem so tempting to flick in the extra chips from the small or big blind, especially in multi-way pots. Not only are the odds compelling but you’re also getting a discount! However, be it in a multi-way pot or versus one opponent most players call too liberally out of the blinds. Winning pots out of position is hard, winning pots out of position without the initiative is even tougher.
Managing a bankroll carefully is a vital skill for a successful player to learn, no matter at what level you play the game. Here are some pointers on bankroll management, which will help ensure poker is an enjoyable as well as profitable pastime.
What is a Bankroll?
The term “bankroll” refers to the amount of money you set aside exclusively to play poker – for example the money you have online at PokerStars. It is separate from all the other finances in your life.
No matter how big your bankroll may be, there is always a risk that you could lose it all and this should not impinge at all on any of your other day-to-day financial obligations. To keep this risk as low as possible, good bankroll management is required.
Basic Rules of Bankroll Management
1. Never play for more money than you can afford to lose
This is the most important rule. It is always possible to lose money playing poker, even if you play every hand perfectly. Therefore you should NEVER risk an amount of money that could get you into financial trouble away from the poker table, especially if you are experiencing a downswing.
Similarly you should never put yourself in a position where your entire bankroll is on the table in a single tournament or hand. Only ever sit down with a small fraction of your bankroll at any one time.
2. Be aware of your goals
Broadly speaking, poker players fall into three groups, each with different expectations and goals in the game. It is very important that you decide what you want from poker and that you select the right level to achieve your aims.
Recreational players are playing mainly for fun and have other sources of income besides poker. If they lose their bankroll they can fund it with fresh money from their regular source of income.
Serious players are good and profitable players but do not depend only on poker for their income. It is not the end of the world if they lose their poker bankroll, but it will hurt.
Professional players depend on poker as their only source of income. They cannot afford to lose all their bankroll as this means they would lose their job. Therefore they must employ the strictest bankroll management techniques.
3. Do not play higher thank your bankroll permits
The following information is intended to offer a good rule of thumb for bankroll requirements if you are playing sit and go tournaments and multi-table tournaments, or fixed limit Texas Hold’em . (The chart at the bottom of this page offers a general guide to bankroll requirements to play no limit Texas Hold’em cash games.)
If you are a recreational player don’t risk more than 10 per cent of your bankroll at once. If you have a bankroll of $100, you should not be entering a tournament with a buy in of more than $10 or sitting at a cash table with more than that amount. For serious and professional players the bankroll restrictions are even tougher.
Sit and go tournaments (STTs): If you are a serious player, you should aim to have at least 30 times the tournament buy in in your bankroll before entering any STT. A professional player will need 100 buy-ins. For example, a serious player could play $20 STTs with a bankroll of $600 but a professional would need $2,000 in his bankroll in order to play $20 STTs.
Multi-table tournaments (MTTs): Tournaments offer huge prizes but also huge swings. You should have at least 50 buy-ins in your bankroll in order to play them as a serious player. A professional will need 200 buy-ins. It is probably best not to play tournaments exclusively. It is safer also to play SNGs or cash games.
Fixed limit Hold’em: You should probably have about 300 big bets in your account to sit down at a fixed limit Hold’em table. For example: in order to play $3-$6 fixed limit Hold’em, you need a bankroll of at least $1,800 (300x$6) to play safely.
4. Stay inside your comfort zone
If you start playing at a limit that you feel is too high, you should stop – even if you can afford to keep playing. It is easy to get nervous in these situations, which can lead to you no longer enjoying the game and making poor decisions. A competent poker player only plays within the limits in which he or she feels comfortable.
For No Limit Hold’em Cash Games
The chart shows you the bankroll requirements for different stakes at no limit Texas Hold’em cash tables. No limit Hold’em can be an extremely volatile game to play, so you must make sure you have a big enough bankroll for the stakes you want to play.
Limit
Buy-In
Recreational Player
Serious Player
Professional Player
x
10 times x
20 times x
50 times x
$0.02 / $0.05
$5
$50
$100
$250
$0.05 / $0.10
$10
$100
$200
$500
$0.10 / $0.25
$25
$250
$500
$1,250
$0.25 / $0.50
$50
$500
$1,000
$2,500
$0.50 / $1
$100
$1,000
$2,000
$5,000
In order to play a game, you should have at least the amount listed above. For example if you are a recreational player and have less than $50, it is best only to play the 1c-2c games. With a bankroll between $50 and $100 it is OK to play 2c-5c games, etc.
When you first sit down at a cash table, you are usually told the buy in restrictions, ie, the maximum and minimum amount a new player is permitted to bring to the table. But you will need the same total bankroll whatever starting stack you choose to bring to the table.
For example, if you buy into a 1c- 2c game for $1 instead of $2, you will risk less money in every hand. But the risk of losing all your money in one hand increases as well. Therefore you can use the chart even if you prefer playing with a shorter stack.
Conclusion
Even if you play with perfect strategy, there are times when you may experience a losing streak. On the other hand, sometimes you will experience periods where it feels as though you can do no wrong. But if you stick to the rules above, you will be able to survive these downswings and upswings, by properly managing your bankroll.
Stay confident, make the right plays, and you’ll enjoy the game and make profits in the long run.
